IMS predicts 7% drop in crystalline silicon PV prices in 1Q 2011
- Percentage change in polysilicon, wafer, cell and module prices
On February 14th, 2011 IMS Research (Wellingborough, U.K.) released a statement predicting that polysilicon, solar wafer, cell and photovoltaic (PV) module prices will fall an average of 7% in the first quarter of 2011 and will continue to decline in the second quarter. The organization states that prices have already begun falling sharply throughout the crystalline PV supply chain, and states that this drop in prices will cause a significant reduction in margins.
"Efficiency improvements and relatively high utilization rates are helping to continue the lowering of manufacturing costs throughout the supply chain," commented IMS PV Market Research Analyst Sam Wilkinson. “However, costs are not being reduced as quickly as prices, and gross margins are beginning to tighten."
IMS states that the primary cause of the predicted declines will be cuts in incentive programs in key markets.
Polysilicon prices to decline 4% in 1Q 2011
IMS further states that similar price declines are predicted throughout the supply chain, with pressure on module prices from lower incentive rates being transferred to upstream suppliers. The company says that the result is lower prices in cells, wafers and polysilicon, with smaller companies suffering the most severe price declines.
IMS states that the average polysilicon contract prices fell 2% in the fourth quarter of 2010, but that spot prices had declined nearly 10%, reversing the rapid increases that occurred in the third quarter of 2010. The organization estimates that both contract and spot prices for polysilicon will decline by a further 4% in the first quarter of 2011.
Despite these forecasts of declining prices, IMS predicts that the polysilicon market for PV applications will grow by nearly 20% in 2011 to reach nearly USD$8 billion.
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2011-02-14| Courtesy: IMS Research | solarserver.com © Heindl Server GmbH
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