On January 30th, 2012 NPD Solarbuzz (San Francisco, California, U.S.) released a report which states that the strong fourth quarter of 2011 in European solar photovoltaic (PV) markets will result in the reduction of PV incentives in 2012, and that European markets will also diversify.

The company's "European PV Markets Quarterly" predicts that the German and Italian PV markets will together decline a total of 37% in 2012, but the company expects strong growth in smaller markets in Central and Eastern Europe. NPD Solarbuzz also states that falling module prices contributed to strong market growth in 2011, noting that these prices have shown recent evidence of stabilization.

"Tier 1 Chinese module manufacturers are predicting module shortages by the end of Q1’12, but the evidence for this is not totally compelling," stated NPD Solarbuzz Europe VP Dr. Alan Turner. "The path for module prices in 1H’12 will largely depend on the extent to which wholesalers are confident enough to build inventories in the face of continued policy uncertainty."

"Germany’s role will be critical, especially because its demand profile will be significantly smoothed by its proposed change to monthly rather than biennial tariff adjustments."


European PV market to grow 10% in 1Q 2012 over 1Q 2011

In the first quarter of 2012, NPD Solarbuzz expects demand to increase 10% over the first quarter of 2011, with Belgium, France, Spain and Greece seeing their highest quarterly shares.

NPD Solarbuzz also notes that the U.K. market could see a short-term boom during the quarter if higher feed-in tariff levels are continued.

The company notes that the decline in PV prices means that less public funding is required for incentives, and that PV is coming closer to competition with retail electricity prices. NPD Solarbuzz states that this will lead to the emergence of new markets, particularly in Eastern and Southeastern Europe.
 

2012-01-31| Courtesy: NPD Solarbuzz | solarserver.com © Heindl Server GmbH

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