Greentech Media Research (GTM, Boston, Massachusetts, U.S.) has released a report which predicts that 180 solar photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturers will either fail or be bought out by other companies by 2015.

"Global PV module manufacturing 2013: Competitive positioning, consolidation and the China factor" cites a global PV supply 35 GW greater on the average than annual demand over the course of the next three years. GTM estimates that 88 of these failing companies will be in high-cost manufacturing markets in the United States, Europe and Canada.

"It's the devil or the deep blue sea for the majority of these high-cost firms," said GTM Senior Analyst and report author Shyam Mehta.

"Manufacturing costs for firms in Europe, the U.S. and Japan are currently over 80 cents per watt. The cost for their Chinese competitors is between 58 cents and 68 cents per watt. The writing is on the wall; these companies will either take what they can get via acquisition or they will bow out."

Some Chinese Tier 2 suppliers to fail as well

The report also estimates that 54 of these firms will be located in China, with most being smaller companies with annual production capacities smaller than 300 MW.

GTM notes that an "aggressive downstream build-out" will save other domestic Chinese suppliers, and that China's recent announcement to increase its 2015 solar target to 21 GW will provide additional demand for domestic producers.

The report also explores the impact of U.S. and potential EU tariffs on Chinese PV exports, as well as other factors impacting the Chinese PV industry. GTM predicts that the Chinese government will continue to provide support to established companies with large workforces in order to cover short-term financial obligations.

Conditions to improve by 2015

Despite the dire warnings for the near future, GTM anticipates that conditions will begin to improve in 2014, as the balance between supply and demand improves.

The report offers a list of nine leading global module manufacturers by 2015. And while many of the current market leaders such as First Solar Inc. (Tempe, Arizona, U.S.) Yingli Green Energy Holding Company (Baoding, China) and Trina Solar Ltd. (Shanghai, China) make the list, Suntech Power Holdings Company Ltd. (Wuxi, China) is conspicuously absent.

2012-10-17 | Courtesy: GTM Research; Image: Suntech | solarserver.com © Heindl Server GmbH

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