ERCOT finds 10-13 GW of solar PV competitive in Texas, solar and wind can lower power prices
- The report found that large amounts of solar would be economical in its Extended Drought scenario, even by 2022
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas' (ERCOT) biennial report on the transmission and generation needs of the state has found that the addition of large amounts of wind and utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) generation is competitive under most scenarios for the next 20 years.
The 2012 "ERCOT Long-Term System Assessment" found that adding 10-13 GW of PV is "economic" under these scenarios in Texas, in part due to the state's high need for generation during "peak" hours when PV is most productive. The study also found that the addition of PV and wind can lower market prices.
"The added renewable generation in this sensitivity results in lower market prices in many hours and lowers the revenue potential for all intermediate and base-load units (including the combined-cycle units)," notes the report.
Variety of scenarios point to a greater role of PV
The report looks at a variety of scenarios, including those where only natural gas generation is added. Two scenarios conclude that 10 GW of PV would be economical: One, where 13 GW of older, inefficient natural gas units are retired, and another that incorporates 2011 data from recent advances in wind turbine technologies.
ERCOT also found that if natural gas prices increase by USD 5 per MMBTU, 13 GW of PV would be economical, as well as additional geothermal resources.
Finally, the study found that if natural gas prices remain low but the state's current drought extends the water needs of natural gas technology will make such generation uneconomical, and that 11 GW of PV will be economic.
Texas could reach 6.9% PV generation by 2032
Under these scenarios, the addition of 10-18 MW of PV would represent between 3.7% and 6.9% of total generation by 2032. At the high end these models show a higher percentage of PV generation than was produced by any nation in 2012, including Italy and Germany.
In the report ERCOT used two modelling systems, one that looked at hourly generation patterns using historical weather patterns, and one that did not. The report did not include residential PV in its analysis.
2013-01-31 | Courtesy: ERCOT | solarserver.com © Heindl Server GmbH
Our editorial selection of breaking solar news is published at:
www.solarserver.com/solar-magazine/solar-news/top-solar-news.html