Stating that the success or failure of many thin-film solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies will depend upon the ability to rapidly and significantly reduce costs and increase installation volumes, Lux Research Inc. (Boston, Massachusetts, U.S.) released a report on October 20, 2010 examining the competition between crystalline silicon and multiple thin-film solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies. "Module Cost Structure Breakdown: Can Thin Film Survive the Crystalline Silicon Onslaught?" examines crystalline silicon, cadmium telluride, amorphous silicon, and cadmium indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) technologies in an environment of "renewed price pressures" and continual cost decreases for crystalline silicon PV. "Crystalline silicon is dominant by volume and remains the cost/price benchmark for solar modules. Cadmium telluride is limited in efficiencies, but is the absolute leader in cost. We project these two technologies will continue to be highly profitable," said Lux Research Senior Analyst Ted Sullivan, the lead author of the report. "The profitability of thin-film silicon is much dicier, but CIGS is positioned to outplace crystalline silicon in profitability by 2013 as leading developers improve process stability."

Report based on COGS models for all four technologies

For the report Lux Research built detailed cost of goods sold (COGS) models for all four technologies, to forecast how module developers can secure capital and reduce costs in materials, labor and utilities to drive down cost. The report also surveys process changes and cost reduction efforts that major manufacturers have undertaken.

Lux Research predicts big increases in CIGS efficiencies, falling costs per watt

Amid the industry-wide trends of increasing efficiencies and falling costs, Lux Research predicts big increases in conversion efficiencies for certain CIGS technologies, to reach 14.2% in 2015. These efficiency improvements could drive increases in production capacities and sharply dropping costs to USD$0.76/watt by 2015, for those CIGS manufacturers that can survive short-term financial pressures to see these developments.

Cadmium telluride to maintain lowest costs per watt

The report also predicts that cadmium telluride thin-film PV will continue to be the lowest-cost and most profitable technology, with module production costs falling to USD$0.54/watt by 2015. Cadmium telluride PV production is dominated by industry giant First Solar Inc. (Tempe, Arizona, U.S.), which saw a highly profitable third quarter of 2010, regaining world leadership in quarterly revenues from crystalline silicon manufacturer Suntech Power Holding Company Ltd. (Wuxi, China). First Solar's costs per watt are the industry's lowest, remaining around USD$0.75/watt. However, it should be noted that First Solar's manufacturing is dependent upon the supply of the rare element tellurium.

2010-11-19| Courtesy:Lux Research; Photo: First solar modules  | solarserver.com © Heindl Server GmbH

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